A1 Journal article (refereed), original research

Global-Local Heat Demand Development for the Energy Transition Time Frame Up to 2050

Open Access publication

Publication Details

Authors: Keiner Dominik, Barbosa Larissa D.S.N.S., Bogdanov Dmitrii, Aghahosseini Arman, Gulagi Ashish, Oyewo Solomon, Child Michael, Khalili Siavash, Breyer Christian

Publisher: MDPI

Publication year: 2021

Language: English

Related journal or series: Energies

Volume number: 14

Issue number: 13

Start page: 1

End page: 51

Number of pages: 51

ISSN: 1996-1073

JUFO level of this publication: 1

Digital Object Identifier (DOI): http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/en14133814

Permanent website address: https://www.mdpi.com/1996-1073/14/13/3814

Open Access: Open Access publication


Globally, the heat sector has a major share in energy consumption and
carbon emission footprint. To provide reliable mitigation options for
space heating, domestic hot water, industrial process heat and biomass
for cooking for the energy transition time frame up to the year 2050,
energy system modeling relies on a comprehensive and detailed heat
demand database in high spatial resolution, which is not available. This
study overcomes this hurdle and provides a global heat demand database
for the mentioned heat demand types and in a resolution of 145 mesoscale
regions up to the year 2050 based on the current heat demand and
detailed elaboration of parameters influencing the future heat demand.
Additionally, heat demand profiles for 145 mesoscale regions are
provided. This research finds the total global heat demand will increase
from about 45,400 TWhth in 2012 up to about 56,600 TWhth
in 2050. The efficiency measures in buildings lead to a peak of space
heating demand in around 2035, strong growth in standards of living
leads to a steady rise of domestic hot water consumption, and a positive
trend for the worldwide economic development induces a growing demand
for industrial process heat, counterbalanced by the efficiency gain in
already industrialised countries. For the case of biomass for cooking, a
phase-out path until 2050 is presented. Literature research revealed a
lack of consensus on future heat demand. This research intends to
facilitate a more differentiated discussion on heat demand projections.

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Last updated on 2021-29-07 at 09:49