A1 Journal article (refereed), original research

On the impact of probabilistic weather data on the economic design of renewable energy systems – a case study on La Gomera island

Open Access publication

Publication Details
Authors: Meschede Henning, Hesselbach Jens, Child Michael, Breyer Christian
Publisher: Aalborg Universitetsforlag: IJSEPM / Aalborg University Press
Publication year: 2019
Language: English
Related Journal or Series Information: International Journal of Sustainable Energy Planning and Management
Volume number: 23
Start page: 15
End page: 26
Number of pages: 12
ISSN: 2246-2929
eISSN: 2246-2929
JUFO-Level of this publication: 1
Open Access: Open Access publication


Renewable energy and storage systems are widely discussed to minimise the impact of global warming. This study analyses the impact of probabilistic weather data on the design of renewable energy systems. The main objective is hereby the determination of the robustness of a recently state-of-the-art design process of a 100% renewable energy and storage system with varying probabilistic input data. The island of La Gomera, Canary Islands, is taken as a case study and simulated with EnergyPLAN for different probabilistic input time-series. Although all analysed systems show some variance in their annual economic and energetic results. The combination of vehicle-to-grid and power-to-hydrogen shows the best economic performance. Hereby, small island energy systems depending heavily on wind energy show higher variations than those with high shares of solar energy. This analysis illustrates clearly that the choice of one historical reference year is not suitable to determine the expected performance of an energy system. To learn about their sensitivity, synthetic probabilistic inputs as applied in this study are a good way to determine both the expected mean values and their variance.

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Last updated on 2020-20-03 at 10:03