A1 Journal article (refereed), original research

Incorporating Hydrologic Uncertainty in Industrial Economic Models: Implications of Extreme Rainfall Variability on Metal Mining Investments


Open Access hybrid publication

Publication Details
Authors: Savolainen Jyrki, Pedretti Daniele, Collan Mikael
Publisher: Springer Verlag (Germany)
Publication year: 2019
Language: English
Related Journal or Series Information: Mine Water and the Environment
Start page: 1
End page: 16
Number of pages: 16
ISSN: 1025-9112
eISSN: 1616-1068
JUFO-Level of this publication: 1
Open Access: Open Access hybrid publication
Location of the parallel saved publication: https://doi.org/10.1007/s10230-019-00600-w

Abstract

Water balance uncertainties have long been known to lead to potential environmental hazards, but their effect on economic profitability of mines is an under-studied field of research. Historical rainfall data are analyzed using the extreme value theory (EVT) and the peak over threshold method (POT). The resulting distributions are used as inputs into a system dynamics techno-economic metal mining investment profitability model, and simulation analysis is performed. The proposed methodology incorporates rainfall extremes and uncertainty into techno-economic modeling of metal mining operations. A case study with real-life historical rainfall data was used to illustrate the relationship between hydrologic uncertainty and the economic value of a metal mining investment.


Last updated on 2020-20-03 at 10:03